美联储主席鲍威尔的发言

（由GPT提供）

**原文：**

Good afternoon. Thank you to the World Affairs Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Dallas Regional Chamber for the kind invitation to be with you today. I will start with some brief comments on the economy and monetary policy.

**译文：**

下午好。感谢世界事务委员会、达拉斯联邦储备银行和达拉斯地区商会的盛情邀请，让我今天能与大家相聚。我将首先就经济和货币政策发表一些简短的评论。

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**原文：**

Looking back, the U.S. economy has weathered a global pandemic and its aftermath and is now back to a good place. The economy has made significant progress toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The labor market remains in solid condition. Inflation has eased substantially from its peak, and we believe it is on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal. We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by returning inflation to our goal while supporting maximum employment.

**译文：**

回顾过去，美国经济经受住了全球大流行及其后果的考验，现在回到了一个良好的状态。经济在实现我们双重使命目标——最大就业和稳定物价方面取得了显著进展。劳动力市场仍然状况良好。通货膨胀已从峰值大幅回落，我们相信它正朝着我们2%的目标可持续地前进。我们致力于通过恢复通胀到我们的目标同时支持最大就业来维持我们经济的强劲。

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**原文：**

Recent Economic Data

Economic growth

The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. Growth in consumer spending has remained strong, supported by increases in disposable income and solid household balance sheets. Business investment in equipment and intangibles has accelerated over the past year. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak.

**译文：**

最近经济数据

经济增长

我们经济最近的表现非常好，远远超过了世界上任何主要经济体。去年经济产出增长超过3%，今年到目前为止以稳健的2.5%的速度扩张。在可支配收入增加和家庭资产负债表稳健的支持下，消费者支出的增长一直保持强劲。过去一年，企业在设备和无形资产上的投资加速。相比之下，住房部门的活动一直很弱。

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**原文：**

Improving supply conditions have supported this strong performance of the economy. The labor force has expanded rapidly, and productivity has grown faster over the past five years than its pace in the two decades before the pandemic, increasing the productive capacity of the economy and allowing rapid economic growth without overheating.

**译文：**

改善的供应条件支持了经济的强劲表现。劳动力迅速扩大，过去五年的生产率增长速度比大流行前二十年的速度快，这增加了经济的生产能力，并允许经济快速增长而不出现过热。

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**原文：**

The labor market

The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. The number of job openings is now just slightly above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work. The rate at which workers quit their jobs is below the pre-pandemic pace, after touching historic highs two years ago. Wages are still increasing, but at a more sustainable pace. Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year. The most recent jobs report for October reflected significant effects from hurricanes and labor strikes, making it difficult to get a clear signal. Finally, at 4.1 percent, the unemployment rate is notably higher than a year ago but has flattened out in recent months and remains historically low.

**译文：**

劳动力市场

劳动力市场仍然状况良好，已经从几年前显著过热的状况中降温，现在根据许多指标回到了与我们就业使命一致的更正常水平。职位空缺的数量现在只是略高于寻求工作的美国失业人数。工人离职的速率低于大流行前的水平，在两年前触及历史高点后。工资仍在增加，但速度更加可持续。招聘从去年早些时候开始放缓。10月份的最新就业报告反映了飓风和劳工罢工的重大影响，这使得难以获得清晰的信号。最后，失业率为4.1%，明显高于一年前，但在近几个月已经趋于平稳，并且仍然处于历史低位。

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**原文：**

Inflation

The labor market has cooled to the point where it is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. This cooling and the substantial improvement in broader supply conditions have brought inflation down significantly over the past two years from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent. Progress on inflation has been broad based. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released this week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Core measures of goods and services inflation, excluding housing, fell rapidly over the past two years and have returned to rates closer to those consistent with our goals. We expect that these rates will continue to fluctuate in their recent ranges. We are watching carefully to be sure that they do, however, just as we are closely tracking the gradual decline in housing services inflation, which has yet to fully normalize. Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job. With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path.

**译文：**

通货膨胀

劳动力市场已经降温到不再成为显著通胀压力的源头。这种降温以及更广泛的供应条件的大幅改善，在过去两年中将通胀从2022年中期超过7%的峰值显著降低。通胀的进展是广泛的。基于消费者价格指数和其他本周发布的数据的估计表明，总体PCE价格在截至10月的12个月内上涨了2.3%，不包括波动的食品和能源类别，核心PCE价格上涨了2.8%。不包括住房的核心商品和服务通胀指标在过去两年迅速下降，并已回到与我们目标更一致的比率。我们预计这些比率将继续在最近的范围内波动。我们正在仔细观察以确保它们这样做，就像我们密切跟踪住房服务通胀的逐渐下降一样，后者尚未完全正常化。通胀运行得更接近我们的2%长期目标，但还没有达到。我们致力于完成这项工作。随着劳动力市场条件大致平衡和通胀预期稳固，我预计通胀将继续下降至我们的2%目标，尽管路径有时可能会有些颠簸。

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**原文：**

Monetary Policy

Given progress toward our inflation goal and the cooling of labor market conditions, last week my Federal Open Market Committee colleagues and I took another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate 1/4 percentage point.

**译文：**

货币政策

鉴于我们向通胀目标的进展和劳动力市场条件的降温，上周我的联邦公开市场委员会同事和我采取了另一步减少政策限制的措施，将我们的政策利率降低了1/4个百分点。

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**原文：**

We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.

**译文：**

我们有信心，通过适当重新校准我们的政策立场，可以维持经济和劳动力市场的实力，同时通胀可持续地降至2%。我们认为实现我们的就业和通胀目标的风险大致平衡，并且我们对两边的风险都保持警觉。我们知道过快减少政策限制可能会阻碍通胀的进展。同时，过慢减少政策限制可能会过度削弱经济活动和就业。

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**原文：**

We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve.

**译文：**

我们正在逐步将政策调整到一个更中性的设置。但到达那里的路径并不是预设的。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标范围进行额外调整时，我们将仔细评估即将到来的数据、不断演变的前景和风险平衡。经济并没有发出任何信号表明我们需要急于降低利率。我们目前在经济中看到的强度使我们有能力谨慎地做出决策。最终，政策利率的路径将取决于即将到来的数据和经济前景的演变。

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**原文：**

We remain resolute in our commitment to the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Our aim has been to return inflation to our objective without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied past efforts to bring down high inflation. That would be a highly desirable result for the communities, families, and businesses we serve. While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.

**译文：**

我们仍然坚定地致力于国会赋予我们的双重使命：最大就业和价格稳定。我们的目标是在不出现过去努力降低高通胀时常常伴随的痛苦失业率上升的情况下，将通胀恢复到我们的目标。对于我们服务的社区、家庭和企业来说，这将是一个非常理想的结果。虽然任务尚未完成，但我们已朝着这一结果取得了相当大的进展。

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**原文：**

Thank you, and I look forward to our discussion.

**译文：**

谢谢，我期待我们的讨论。

偏鹰派发言：

– “We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”  

– “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”  

– “We remain resolute in our commitment to the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Our aim has been to return inflation to our objective without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied past efforts to bring down high inflation.”  

– “We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent.”

– “我们知道，过快降低政策约束可能会阻碍通胀的进一步下降；同时，过慢降低政策约束可能会不适当地削弱经济活动和就业。”  

– “当前经济没有发出需要急于降息的信号。目前经济的强劲表现使我们能够更谨慎地做出决策。”  

– “我们坚决履行国会赋予我们的双重任务：最大就业和价格稳定。我们的目标是将通胀率恢复到目标水平，而不引发像过去为了控制高通胀而带来的大规模失业。”  

– “我们有信心，在适当重新调整政策立场的情况下，经济和劳动力市场的强劲表现可以持续保持，同时通胀将稳步向2%的目标下降。”